Specialty Crops Market Outlook – October 2026

Global Market Overview

October is revealing an increasingly important distinction across agricultural markets: higher global production does not necessarily translate into greater export availability or lower prices.

The Northern Hemisphere harvest is progressing, bringing additional supply into international markets. However, geopolitical uncertainty, logistical restrictions and selective producer selling continue to limit the availability of certain commodities.

The Black Sea remains a critical source of disruption. Despite improving production figures in Ukraine and Russia, ongoing attacks on Ukrainian ports, processing facilities and transportation infrastructure are restricting export flows. These difficulties continue to create opportunities for alternative origins, particularly Argentina, where reliable execution and shipment availability are becoming increasingly valuable to international buyers.

Sunflower illustrates this situation particularly well. Global production is projected to reach a record 63.62 million metric tons in 2026/27, yet international sunflower oil prices remain historically elevated. Strong consumption growth and logistical constraints are preventing the expected increase in production from fully translating into lower international prices.

Meanwhile, South America is entering a decisive period. Argentina’s sunflower planting campaign is progressing ahead of historical averages, while the upcoming harvests of pulses and specialty crops remain exposed to weather uncertainty. Excessive rainfall associated with El Niño could affect harvesting conditions, product quality and export availability.

From a commercial perspective, markets are becoming increasingly selective. Popcorn continues to demonstrate upward price momentum, while millet, black beans and coriander are experiencing significant differences between sellers’ expectations and buyers’ willingness to pay.

Our view for the final quarter of 2026 remains selective rather than broadly bullish. Buyers should secure coverage where physical availability is constrained, while avoiding excessive forward commitments in markets where new-crop supply could create more attractive purchasing opportunities.

Popcorn

Market Situation

The Argentine popcorn market continues to confirm the upward trend observed since midyear.

The latest export figures, covering September 1 through October 16, show approximately 25,600 MT shipped, representing USD 12.75 million in FOB export value.

More importantly, recent export transactions are being concluded at progressively higher values, confirming that the price recovery is supported by actual business rather than exclusively by sellers’ expectations.

The market is also becoming more concentrated, with the five largest exporters accounting for approximately 60% of export value during the period.

Internationally, reduced Turkish corn production could contribute to a tighter regional grain balance, although specific production estimates for popcorn remain unavailable.

Outlook

We maintain our constructive outlook for Argentine popcorn.

The market has moved decisively away from the historically low prices observed earlier in 2026. While short-term fluctuations remain possible, the combination of stronger export prices and reduced availability from competing origins continues to support higher replacement costs.

Our previous expectation of prices approaching USD 620/630/MT FOB toward year-end remains a plausible bullish scenario.

Commercial Takeaway

Buyers should maintain adequate coverage through the first quarter of 2027.

Rather than aggressively extending positions at any price, we recommend securing volumes progressively, particularly when temporary market corrections create attractive entry opportunities.

• Buying Strategy: BUY/STRONG BUY

Sunflower

Market Situation

The sunflower market is entering a particularly interesting phase.

According to the October USDA estimates, global sunflower production for 2026/27 is projected to reach 63.62 MMT, an increase of approximately 14.9% year over year.

Ukraine is contributing significantly to this recovery. By mid-October, approximately 66% of its sunflower area had been harvested, with production expected to reach 13.0–13.5 MMT.

However, increased production has not translated into a proportional decline in international prices.

Sunflower oil continues trading at historically elevated levels, with October CIF Rotterdam values around USD 1,420/MT, approximately 48% above pre-war averages.

The explanation lies in two fundamental factors.

First, global sunflower oil consumption is projected to increase approximately 15%, absorbing much of the additional production.

Second, Ukrainian export logistics remain severely constrained. Attacks on ports, railways and processing facilities continue to restrict the movement of sunflower products into international markets.

This creates an unusual situation: abundant seed production in certain origins, combined with persistent tightness in internationally available oil.

Argentina is also expanding production. The 2026/27 planting campaign is progressing ahead of historical averages, with approximately 3.1 million hectares projected and favorable early crop conditions.

Outlook

We expect the sunflower market to remain relatively firm in the short term, although the arrival of Northern Hemisphere production should progressively introduce downward pressure.

The current price structure already reflects this expectation, with spot values trading above forward positions.

For specialty sunflower, the implications differ by variety.

• Striped Sunflower — BUY

Striped sunflower remains difficult to source in consistent export volumes.

Although additional Northern Hemisphere production could improve availability, buyers should not assume that the broader recovery in oilseed sunflower will immediately translate into greater supplies of specialty striped varieties.

We recommend securing suitable material when competitive offers become available, particularly around USD 750/800/MT FOB Argentina.

• Black Sunflower — HOLD / BUY ON WEAKNESS

Black sunflower remains supported by elevated sunflower oil values.

However, the approaching increase in global seed availability suggests that buyers may find better opportunities as the Northern Hemisphere harvest progresses.

We recommend maintaining normal coverage while taking advantage of temporary price adjustments.

• Confectionery Sunflower — HOLD

The market is entering a period in which greater Northern Hemisphere availability could gradually improve supply conditions.

We recommend a selective purchasing approach, prioritizing specific calibres and qualities rather than building large speculative positions.

Commercial Takeaway

The distinction between immediate availability and forward supply remains critical.

Buyers should secure scarce specialty varieties when opportunities arise, but avoid interpreting current spot premiums as evidence that prices will necessarily remain elevated throughout 2027.

Millet

Market Situation

Millet remains one of the most challenging markets in terms of price discovery.

Argentine producers continue restricting sales in anticipation of higher prices, resulting in limited physical availability and firm asking prices.

Current Argentine indications are approximately:

• Yellow millet: USD 600/MT FOB Buenos Aires.

• Red and black millet: USD 650/MT FOB Buenos Aires.

However, international demand is proving increasingly sensitive to these levels.

In yellow millet, buyers are generally reluctant to validate values above approximately USD 500/MT FOB, creating a significant gap between sellers’ expectations and executable business.

Ukrainian supply remains constrained by war-related logistical difficulties, including limited container availability and uncertainty surrounding shipment execution.

Recent Ukrainian black millet indications around USD 800/MT CFR Nhava Sheva illustrate the premiums that some destinations may face when sourcing from traditional origins.

Outlook

We expect prices to remain firm in the short term, primarily because of limited producer selling.

However, current asking prices should not be interpreted as a fully established market equilibrium.

The approaching Argentine 2027 harvest could introduce additional supply, particularly if current high prices encourage greater planting.

Commercial Takeaway

Buyers requiring red or black millet should prioritize securing suitable qualities when commercially viable.

For yellow millet, we recommend greater patience and price discipline.

• Buying Strategy: BUY ON CONFIRMED REQUIREMENTS

Black Beans

Market Situation

Black bean prices remain firm, supported primarily by Brazilian demand.

Brazil continues to offer attractive purchasing conditions for Argentine suppliers, benefiting from geographical proximity, shorter transit times and faster payment cycles.

This situation is limiting the availability of Argentine black beans for more distant destinations, particularly Central America.

Although international demand remains active, Argentine suppliers currently have limited incentives to prioritize overseas shipments when the Brazilian market offers more attractive net returns.

Additionally, preliminary indications suggest reduced Brazilian planting intentions for the upcoming crop, potentially extending regional supply tightness.

Outlook

We expect the market to remain firm in the near term.

However, price increases may eventually encourage additional competition from alternative origins, particularly Canada.

The availability of Canadian black beans could become increasingly relevant for Central American buyers seeking to diversify supply.

Commercial Takeaway

Buyers should maintain adequate coverage but avoid aggressively chasing current prices.

Where Argentine offers become uncompetitive, alternative origins should be evaluated.

• Buying Strategy: HOLD

Coriander

Market Situation

Argentine coriander availability remains limited, with producers showing little willingness to commit additional volumes.

Recent supplier indications have increased substantially.

While previous transactions were concluded around USD 850/MT FOB Buenos Aires, current offers have reached approximately USD 970/MT FOB.

However, international buyers are generally validating prices closer to USD 850–900/MT FOB.

This significant gap between buying and selling expectations is restricting market activity.

Internationally, Russian coriander remains more competitively priced than Bulgarian origin, although Russian export logistics continue to carry additional execution risk.

Outlook

We expect the market to remain relatively illiquid until sellers become more flexible or international demand begins accepting higher prices.

Weather developments affecting Argentine production will also influence the outlook.

Commercial Takeaway

Buyers should monitor Argentine availability closely and consider securing positions if offers return to the USD 900–950/MT FOB range.

• Buying Strategy: BUY ON WEAKNESS

Green Peas

Market Situation

The green pea market continues transitioning away from the oversupply conditions experienced during 2025/26.

Canadian production for 2026/27 is projected at approximately 3.26 MMT, down 17% year over year.

Nevertheless, substantial carry-in inventories are cushioning the impact of the smaller harvest.

As a result, total Canadian supply remains relatively comfortable, limiting the potential for a sharp price recovery.

International demand remains supported by India, China and Bangladesh.

In Argentina, old-crop green peas are currently being offered around USD 480–500/MT FOB Buenos Aires, although international buyers remain reluctant to validate these levels.

The upcoming Argentine harvest introduces additional uncertainty, particularly regarding the potential impact of excessive rainfall on yields and quality.

Outlook

We expect green pea prices to remain broadly stable, with moderate upside potential if Argentine harvesting conditions deteriorate.

The principal risk is not necessarily a global shortage, but reduced availability of export-quality material from specific origins.

Commercial Takeaway

Buyers should maintain normal coverage and take advantage of competitive old-crop opportunities.

Large speculative positions are not justified while Canadian inventories remain comfortable.

• Buying Strategy: HOLD / BUY ON WEAKNESS

Chickpeas

Market Situation

Chickpeas remain among the better-supplied commodities in our current outlook.

Canadian production for 2026/27 is projected at approximately 400,000 MT, below the previous season.

However, substantial carry-in inventories are expected to increase total available supply to approximately 676,000 MT.

The projected stock-to-use ratio reaches 101%, indicating an exceptionally comfortable supply position.

Canadian average prices are consequently expected to decline toward approximately USD 450/MT.

Argentina is entering its harvest period, with current indicative FOB values around:

• 7 mm: USD 550/MT.

• 8 mm: USD 650/MT.

• 9 mm: USD 750/MT.

  
  

Weather remains the main uncertainty for the Argentine crop. Excessive rainfall during harvesting could affect grain color, appearance and overall export quality.

Outlook

We expect international chickpea prices to remain under pressure from comfortable Canadian inventories.

However, quality premiums could emerge if adverse weather affects the Argentine harvest.

Commercial Takeaway

Buyers should remain selective and avoid unnecessary forward commitments.

Current Argentine prices may provide attractive opportunities for specific calibres and qualities, particularly when supported by confirmed destination demand.

• Buying Strategy: WAIT / BUY AGAINST CONFIRMED DEMAND

Strategic View — Q4 2026

As we enter the final quarter of 2026, the agricultural market is increasingly divided between commodities facing genuine supply constraints and those where substantial global inventories continue to limit price appreciation.

Popcorn remains one of the clearest markets showing sustained upward momentum. Export transactions continue confirming higher values, suggesting that the price recovery is supported by actual demand.

Sunflower presents a more complex picture. Record global production is improving the underlying supply balance, but strong consumption and Black Sea logistical disruptions continue supporting international prices. Specialty varieties should therefore be evaluated independently from the broader oilseed market.

Millet and coriander remain characterized by restricted producer selling and significant differences between asking prices and executable international demand. In these markets, purchasing discipline is as important as securing physical availability.

Green peas appear to have established a price floor, although substantial Canadian inventories should limit the pace of recovery.

Chickpeas remain the clearest example of a market where buyers can afford to remain patient, provided that their quality and calibre requirements are sufficiently flexible.

KEY MESSAGE FOR BUYERS

The final quarter of 2026 calls for selective procurement rather than aggressive inventory accumulation.

Secure coverage in commodities showing genuine physical tightness, maintain flexibility where new-crop supply is approaching, and prioritize reliable execution over nominal price advantages when sourcing from logistically constrained origins.

In the current environment, the most effective purchasing strategy is not necessarily to buy earlier or later, but to distinguish between temporary supply disruptions, structural shortages and markets where prices have moved beyond what underlying demand can sustain.

OCTOBER BUYING VIEW

Product	Market Direction	Supply Risk	Recommended Strategy
Popcorn	↑ Bullish	Medium–High	BUY/STRONG BUY
Striped Sunflower	→ Firm	High	BUY
Black Sunflower	→ / ↓ Stable–Soft	Medium	HOLD / BUY ON WEAKNESS
Confectionery Sunflower	→ / ↓Firm	Medium	HOLD
Yellow Millet	→ Firm, limited liquidity	Medium	BUY
Red & Black Millet	↑ Tight availability	High	BUY
Black Beans	→ / ↑ Firm	Medium–High	HOLD
Coriander	→ Firm, illiquid	Medium–High	BUY ON WEAKNESS
Green Peas	→ / ↑ Stable–Firm	Medium	HOLD / BUY ON WEAKNESS
Chickpeas	→ / ↓ Neutral–Soft	Low–Medium	WAIT / BUY AGAINST SALES