Specialty Crops Market Outlook – July 2026

Executive Summary

Global agricultural markets continue to be shaped by a combination of geopolitical uncertainty, weather developments, and tightening availability across several specialty crops.

Logistics had begun to normalize following the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East, raising expectations of lower freight rates and improved vessel availability. However, the renewed military escalation over the past ten days has reversed much of that progress. Shipping lines have once again reduced available space, cancelled selected services, and maintained elevated freight levels, particularly on Middle Eastern routes.

Our view is that this situation is unlikely to normalize in the short term. Rather, we expect alternating periods of tension and partial normalization through the remainder of 2026. Energy markets are likely to reflect this environment, with crude oil averaging around USD 90 per barrel, supporting freight rates at structurally higher levels than historical averages.

At the same time, weather has become the primary agricultural risk. Heat waves across several European producing regions could negatively affect sunflower and green pea yields, while lower planting intentions for confectionery sunflower continue reinforcing a structurally tighter supply outlook.

Overall, market conditions continue to favor early procurement in selected products while maintaining flexibility in commodities that remain well supplied.

Popcorn

The popcorn market continues its gradual upward trend.

Lower production, harvest delays and improving international demand have resulted in another month of price appreciation. FOB values have continued moving moderately higher, confirming the transition from the prolonged oversupply cycle experienced during the last two years toward a healthier supply-demand balance.

Demand remains particularly active across North Africa, the Middle East and Latin America, while available export stocks are gradually tightening.

Commercial Takeaways

• Moderate but consistent upward price trend.

• Limited downside risk.

• Replacement costs are expected to continue increasing.

• 
  

Recommended Actions

• Continue building medium-term coverage.

• Secure volumes before further seasonal appreciation.

Sunflower (Confectionery, Striped & Black)

Confectionery Sunflower

The outlook for confectionery sunflower continues strengthening.

Although availability is not yet critically tight, prices have not fully reflected the structural supply restrictions developing worldwide.

Both Northern and Southern Hemisphere growers continue shifting acreage toward oilseed sunflower, attracted by stronger crushing demand and biofuel economics. This trend is reducing future production potential for confectionery varieties.

Additionally, recent heat waves across Europe introduce further production uncertainty precisely during critical crop development stages.

Our expectation is that confectionery sunflower prices will continue appreciating over the coming months as these fundamentals become increasingly reflected by the market.

Recommended Actions

• Build long positions.

• Secure forward contracts whenever available.

• Avoid delaying coverage until Northern Hemisphere harvest results are confirmed.

Striped Sunflower

Striped sunflower has become one of the tightest products in the specialty seed market.

Availability is extremely limited and premium hybrids remain particularly difficult to source. The shortage is also impacting sunflower kernel availability, creating additional pressure throughout the value chain.

Buyers should increasingly consider specification flexibility whenever technically possible.

Alternative striped hybrids, even if not traditionally preferred, may become commercially attractive given current market conditions.

Commercial Alternatives

• Black sunflower.

• Alternative striped hybrids beyond Neon, Zeta, Iregui and Aguará. Also consider small confection sunflower like 16/64

  
  

Recommended Actions

• Secure any available premium material.

• Increase specification flexibility.

• Plan purchases well ahead of shipment requirements.

Black Sunflower

Black sunflower continues benefiting from substitution demand generated by the shortage of striped varieties.

Prices have already reacted more aggressively than confectionery sunflower, and additional demand from substitution is expected to provide continued support.

Recommended Actions

• Continue building strategic inventory.

• Use black sunflower whenever customer specifications allow substitution.

Green Peas

The green pea market remains stable after reaching what appears to be its cyclical bottom.

Chinese demand continues providing support while concerns over European weather conditions could eventually reduce production potential.

Although no significant price increases have yet materialized, downside risk appears increasingly limited.

Commercial Takeaways

• Market appears balanced.

• Weather introduces upside risk.

• Chinese demand remains supportive.

  
  

Recommended Actions

• Maintain normal coverage.

• Consider extending purchasing horizons if weather conditions deteriorate further.

Millet

Millet markets remain generally stable.

However, availability of colored millet—particularly red and black millet—continues to be limited, while overall market attention remains focused on the potential impact of recent Northern

Hemisphere heat waves.

Supply conditions are expected to become clearer once crop development progresses.

Recommended Actions

• Purchase colored millet opportunistically.

• Maintain normal coverage for standard varieties.

Sesame & Chia

Demand has strengthened noticeably during recent weeks.

European buyers continue actively sourcing both products, while export-quality lots remain relatively limited in Paraguay and Brazil.

Argentina currently offers some competitive opportunities for selected qualities, creating attractive short-term commercial possibilities.

Commercial Takeaways

• Strong international demand.

• Limited availability of EU-compliant lots.

• Argentina currently offers competitive alternatives.

  
  

Recommended Actions

• Prioritize available export-grade lots.

• Secure coverage early for European destinations.

Black Beans & Colored Beans

Southern Hemisphere bean harvests continue progressing behind schedule due to adverse weather conditions.

New crop availability remains limited, although the first black bean lots are beginning to reach the market. Small volumes of Alubia, Dark Red Kidney (DRK) and Light Red Kidney (LRK) beans are also starting to appear.

Until harvest progresses further, export availability is expected to remain relatively tight.

Commercial Takeaways

• New crop supply remains limited.

• Weather delays continue affecting market availability.

• Quality selection remains critical.

Recommended Actions

• Secure early lots meeting export specifications.

• Closely monitor harvest progress during the coming weeks.

Canary Seed

No major changes have occurred since our previous report.

Large Canadian carry-over stocks continue limiting upside potential despite lower planted

acreage.

Recommended Actions

• Continue operating primarily on a spot basis.

Chickpeas

The chickpea market remains relatively balanced.

High Canadian inventories continue offsetting lower Argentine planting intentions, preventing any significant upward movement in prices.

Recommended Actions

• Maintain tactical purchasing.

• Monitor production developments before extending coverage.

Final Thoughts

The market narrative has shifted once again.

Rather than focusing exclusively on agricultural fundamentals, purchasing decisions are now increasingly influenced by the interaction between geopolitical risk, freight availability, energy prices and weather uncertainty.

Specialty crops with structurally tightening supply—particularly sunflower products and popcorn—continue offering the strongest upside potential.

Meanwhile, stable products such as peas, millet and chickpeas should continue to be managed tactically until clearer production signals emerge from the Northern Hemisphere.

Strategic View

The second half of 2026 is likely to remain characterized by higher logistics costs, weather-driven volatility and increasingly selective availability across specialty crops.

In this environment, the competitive advantage will come from securing supply early, maintaining specification flexibility and diversifying origins whenever possible.

Price Outlook Matrix – July 2026

Product	Outlook	Market Rationale	Recommended Action
Confectionery Sunflower	🟢 STRONG BUY	Tightening global supply, reduced planted area, European heat risk and delayed price adjustment create significant upside potential.	Build long positions and secure forward coverage.
Striped Sunflower	🟢 STRONG BUY	Extremely scarce availability, kernel shortages and limited premium hybrids.	Secure any available volume and remain flexible on hybrid specifications.
Black Sunflower	🟢 BUY	Benefiting from substitution demand and continued price strength.	Build strategic inventory where customer specifications allow.
Popcorn	🟢 BUY	Moderate but sustained price appreciation driven by lower production and improving demand.	Continue extending medium-term coverage.
Green Peas	🟡 HOLD	Stable market supported by Chinese demand and potential weather-related production risk.	Maintain regular coverage and monitor crop developments.
Sesame	🟢 BUY	Strong demand with limited EU-compliant supply from Paraguay and Brazil.	Secure export-quality lots early.
Chia	🟢 BUY	Active international demand and limited premium supply.	Prioritize available export-grade volumes.
Millet	🟡 HOLD	Stable market, although colored millet remains in short supply.	Buy colored millet opportunistically and plan ahead.
Black Beans	🟡 HOLD	New crop is only beginning to arrive after weather-related harvest delays.	Monitor harvest progress and secure early export-quality lots.
Chickpeas	🟡 HOLD	Balanced fundamentals with ample Canadian inventories.	Tactical purchasing only.
Canary Seed	🔴 WAIT	Large Canadian carry-over stocks continue weighing on prices.	Continue operating on a spot basis.

How to Read This

• 🟢 STRONG BUY → Strong conviction. Market fundamentals point to sustained upside; building long positions is recommended.

• 🟢 BUY → Favorable entry point. Upside potential outweighs downside risk.

• 🟡 HOLD → Neutral outlook. Maintain tactical coverage and monitor market developments.

• 🔴 WAIT → Oversupplied market or limited upside. Delay purchases unless immediate coverage is required.