Specialty Crops Market Outlook – April 2026

Executive Summary

The situation in the Middle East remains a source of uncertainty despite the current temporary truce, which we expect to stabilize over time. Nearly 45 days of disruption in trade flows have resulted in below-normal stock levels across several markets.

As conditions gradually improve and freight rates potentially ease, we anticipate a short-term rebound in demand, particularly for products that have been under pressure due to oversupply or market closures—most notably popcorn and green peas.

In this context, we see a compelling window to build positions, especially in:

• Popcorn

• Peas (currently at price floors)

• Sunflower, particularly confectionery and striped varieties, where stocks remain tight and the next Northern Hemisphere crop is still several months away.

Below is a product-by-product overview to support your decision-making.

Popcorn

The market is currently trading at USD 520–530/t FOB Buenos Aires, with supply still constrained due to harvest delays caused by excessive rainfall late in the cycle.

While demand has been slow to adjust to these levels—after a prolonged period of oversupply and low prices—market fundamentals are clearly shifting:

• Limited current availability

• Potential yield impact due to excess moisture

• Reduced planting incentives in key origins such as Brazil and Turkey

Looking ahead, we expect firm prices with a moderate upward bias toward the end of 2026.

Commercial Takeaways:

• This is a transition phase from oversupply to tightening conditions

• Delayed purchasing could imply higher replacement costs

Recommended Actions:

• Secure partial coverage now

• Consider layered purchasing strategies to average price exposure

Sunflower (Confectionery & Oilseed)

The sunflower market remains structurally strong, supported by robust global demand for oil, which continues to drive crushing activity and price levels.

However, this dynamic is also creating a shift in planting decisions, favoring oilseed varieties over confectionery types. In the U.S., for example, non-oilseed planting intentions are down ~8% year-on-year, tightening future availability in this segment.

At the same time:

• Stocks for confectionery and striped sunflower remain tight

• The market is still months away from Northern Hemisphere supply replenishment

Commercial Takeaways:

• Strong demand with limited downside risk in the short term

• Structural tightening in non-oilseed segments

Recommended Actions:

• Secure volumes early, especially for confectionery grades

• Evaluate forward contracts under current conditions

Peas (Green Peas)

The market remains under pressure, with prices at historical lows. Producers are holding back supply as current price levels do not cover production costs, and part of the crop is being redirected to seed use.

This dynamic is artificially limiting available supply and sets the stage for a potential upward correction once demand reactivates or availability tightens further.

Commercial Takeaways:

• Market likely at or near its floor

• High probability of price correction once supply constraints materialize

Recommended Actions:

• Build positions early, prioritizing longer coverage horizons

• Maintain origin flexibility

Canary Seed 

The market is experiencing structural cost pressure, driven by higher inter-crop pricing and logistics costs, which limits Argentina’s competitiveness as an origin.

Canada remains the dominant supplier, still holding significant carry-over stocks. While prices appear to have found a floor, the recovery remains gradual.

Commercial Takeaways:

• Market stabilization underway, but no strong bullish signal yet

Recommended Actions:

• Focus on spot opportunities

• Avoid long positions until clearer upward momentum develops

Millet

The market shows a divergent supply landscape:

• Ukraine: higher prices due to drought conditions

• Russia: more competitive pricing

  
  

Logistical constraints (minimum 3 FCL) continue to shape trading dynamics. Supply is expected to remain tight until the next Northern Hemisphere harvest window (September–November).

Commercial Takeaways:

• Tight supply environment in the short term

• Operational constraints must be factored into planning

Recommended Actions:

• Extend planning horizons

• Avoid short coverage windows that may increase supply risk

Black Beans

Prices remain firm at USD 780–800/t FOB, supported by limited availability and declining quality at origin.

This is increasingly becoming a quality-driven market, where the gap between total supply and export-grade product continues to widen.

Commercial Takeaways:

• Main risk is quality availability, not volume

Recommended Actions:

• Secure certified, quality-verified product early

• Avoid opportunistic buying without proper specifications

Chickpeas

A reduction in planted area is expected due to:

• High carry-over stocks

• Limited commercial visibility

• Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty

While the market remains weak in the short term, these factors could trigger a supply-driven price rebound in the medium term.

Commercial Takeaways:

• Market in transition, with potential cycle reversal

Recommended Actions:

• Maintain light coverage in the short term

• Closely monitor planting developments to anticipate entry points

Final Thoughts

Across most products, prices remain below historical averages, but key structural factors—weather, cost inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and strong industrial demand—are limiting further downside.

Strategic View

• This is not a market for passive buying

• It is a market to secure supply with discipline and timing

Global Recommendation

• Build partial coverage now, maintaining flexibility to adjust

• Prioritize products with tightening supply dynamics:

  Popcorn | Sunflower | Black Beans

Price Outlook Matrix (April 2026)

Product	Outlook	Rationale (Short)	Recommended Action
Popcorn	🟢 BUY	Supply constraints + weather impact + reduced planting incentives	Build coverage now (layered buying)
Sunflower (Confectionery)	🟢 BUY	Tight stocks + shift to oilseed + delayed NH supply	Secure volume early / consider forward
Peas	🟢 BUY	Prices at floor + farmer retention + reduced effective supply	Lock long coverage at current levels
Black Beans	🟢 BUY	Limited availability + declining quality	Secure quality lots early
Millet	🟡 HOLD	Tight supply but fragmented market + logistical constraints	Plan ahead / buy on confirmed needs
Chickpeas	🟡 HOLD	Weak short term but potential supply contraction ahead	Light coverage / monitor planting
Canary Seed	🟡 HOLD	Market stabilizing, no strong bullish signal yet	Opportunistic spot buying

How to read this:

🟢 BUY → Favorable entry point / upside risk dominates

🟡 HOLD → Wait for confirmation / tactical positioning

🔴 WAIT → (none currently)