Specialty Crops Market Outlook - March 2026
Updated: Apr 13
March 2026 Briefing
Global specialty crop markets are entering a transition phase following the volatility of the past two seasons. Current dynamics reflect a combination of oversupply in several pulses, structural area reductions in some niche crops, and increasing geopolitical influence on logistics and trade flows.
Below are the key signals shaping the market.
After reaching USD 580–630/ton FOB in 2024, the market corrected sharply during 2025, falling nearly USD 100/ton. The price drop reduced grower margins and triggered an estimated 20–30% reduction in planted area.
Prices have now stabilized around USD 500–530 FOB Buenos Aires. Short-term pressure may appear as the 2026 harvest enters the market, but reduced production across Argentina, Brazil and Turkey could gradually tighten supply.
The market is currently transitioning toward structurally lower supply, suggesting a potential recovery later in 2026.
Argentina has recorded a new production record in black oil sunflower, while reduced supply in Eastern Europe has forced countries such as Romania and Bulgaria to import additional volumes.
Strong crushing demand supports sunflower oil prices, but it also complicates origination for bird feed markets.
At the same time, confectionary and striped sunflower varieties are seeing declining planted area, as producers shift toward higher-yielding oilseed hybrids. This structural change could tighten availability of specialty grades over the coming months.
Forward coverage may be advisable in this segment.
Canada continues to dominate the market with nearly 80% of global exports, effectively setting the global price benchmark.
Following a strong harvest, prices corrected approximately 30% downward, with Canadian FOB plant prices falling significantly. Including inland freight and port costs, delivered prices are currently near USD 700 CFR depending on destination.
Argentina remains a reliable secondary supplier with 40–55k tons of annual production, though a large share is absorbed by Brazil, limiting availability for other markets.
Russia currently leads price competitiveness, offering millet around USD 400–450/ton CFR depending on destination.
Ukraine’s production has been constrained by weather and ongoing geopolitical disruptions, tightening availability from that origin. Canada and the U.S. can supply limited volumes but generally at higher prices.
Argentina’s production remains mostly oriented toward Brazil, leaving limited spot availability for other destinations.
Black bean exports from Argentina and Brazil increased steadily between mid-2025 and early 2026, with Argentina maintaining a slight lead in volume.
Key destinations remain Mexico and Venezuela, while Brazil exports more broadly across Latin America and Asia.
FOB Buenos Aires prices increased nearly 20% between January and February 2026, driven largely by seasonal Brazilian demand ahead of Carnival. As Brazil withdraws from the market after replenishing stocks, prices typically normalize and reopen opportunities for other destinations.
The chickpea market remains structurally oversupplied, leading buyers to adopt a far more selective approach to quality and specifications.
Transactions are increasingly negotiated on a contract-by-contract basis, with wide price dispersion between calibers. Demand from the Middle East has also slowed temporarily due to geopolitical tensions and Ramadan.
Current market levels appear near cyclical bottom prices.
The pea market continues under strong pressure following Canada’s 3.9 million ton crop in the 2025–2026 campaign, which pushed carry-out stocks close to 1.3 million tons.
Canadian peas are currently trading near USD 435/ton CNF China, reflecting continued downward pressure from large inventories and uncertain Chinese import demand.
Short-term upside remains limited while stocks remain elevated.
Strategic Outlook
Across most specialty crops, current prices remain below historical averages, creating an attractive window for forward coverage.
At the same time, growing instability in the Middle East is beginning to affect logistics availability and freight costs. While the full impact remains uncertain, disruptions in shipping capacity or transit times cannot be ruled out.
For this reason, we recommend:
Reinforcing safety inventories where possible
Planning purchases for the next 90–120 days
Coordinating forward shipments early
Once regional tensions ease, a restocking cycle—particularly from the Middle East and Southeast Asia—could quickly tighten supply across several products.
In markets like these, early positioning often determines competitiveness.
Our commercial team remains available to discuss market developments, quotations and forward coverage strategies.
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