Market outlook

Specialty Crops Outlook – February 2026

As we move deeper into the new campaign cycle, specialty crop markets are showing a clear divergence: supply expansion in some categories, structural tightening in others. Below is a focused overview of the main dynamics shaping positioning.

Black Sunflower (Oil Type)

Argentina has broken its production record for the second consecutive year. From a 10-year average of ~4 MMT, output is now estimated at 6 MMT, following 5 MMT last season — nearly 40–50% above historical norms.

Short term, origination should remain fluid. Price direction will depend primarily on the global vegetable oil complex, which remains firm but without strong bullish triggers. A meaningful rally would require crop stress in key producing regions.

Conclusion: Supply is abundant; pricing upside limited unless external shocks occur.

Confectionary & Striped Sunflower

Planted area has shifted toward oil sunflower, reducing confectionary and striped surface.

While no immediate shortage is visible, supply tightness may emerge during the Nov 2026 – Mar 2027 transition window. Argentina typically produces 40–50k tons annually in confectionary; even modest area reductions could materially impact availability.

Premium calibers (22/64 and 24/64) will remain the key focus. Smaller birdfeed grades should trade at softer levels, while larger calibers may decouple if supply tightens.

Conclusion: Medium-term tightening risk, especially in premium sizes.

Popcorn

Current pricing pressure from Argentina reflects liquidity needs rather than structural balance.

Estimated planted area reductions:

• Brazil: 50–100k MT

• Argentina: 150–200k MT

• Turkey: ~60k MT

Production premiums have not compensated risk, leading growers to reduce exposure. While prices should remain stable short term, tightening stocks point toward a mid-to-late-year correction.

Equilibrium reference: ~USD 600/MT FOB Argentina (40/42 quality).

Conclusion: Structural tightening ahead.

Green Peas

Argentina holds ~250k exportable tons (≈150% of normal production). Meanwhile, Canada and China have removed tariffs, potentially reshaping trade flows.

Two bearish scenarios dominate:

1. Canada regains China, increasing pressure in secondary markets.

2. Canada reduces prices to regain share, depressing global levels.

In both cases, the bias remains weak. China’s purchasing behavior will be decisive.

Conclusion: Oversupplied, fragile market.

Chickpeas

The market remains structurally oversupplied. Russia maintains dominance in the Middle East through pricing scale.

Argentina must compete through quality consistency, reliability, and disciplined execution. Defaults and claims continue to influence buyer sentiment.

Indicative FOB (Middle East):

• 7 mm: USD 500–550

• 8 mm: USD 550–600

• 9 mm: USD 650+

Conclusion: Price-driven market; differentiation is key.

Final Take

The specialty crop landscape is fragmented:

• Surplus pressure: Green peas, chickpeas

• Structural tightening: Popcorn

• Opportunity positioning: Sunflower, canary seed

  
  

In this environment, advantage will not come from volume alone, but from disciplined origination, aggregated demand, financial structuring, and sharp commercial intelligence.

Precision wins.