Specialty Crops Market Outlook – May 2026

Executive Summary

Global agricultural markets continue to transition from the extreme volatility seen over the past two years into a more selective and fundamentally driven environment. While several commodities still face burdensome inventories, the first USDA WASDE projections for the 2026/27 campaign introduce a more balanced medium-term outlook across multiple products.

The key shift is that markets are no longer moving uniformly. Some products remain structurally weak due to excess stocks and aggressive competition between origins, while others are beginning to show tightening dynamics linked to reduced planted area, farmer retention, quality constraints, or speculative holding behavior.

At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty, energy prices, biofuel demand, and freight normalization continue to influence purchasing behavior and replacement costs globally.

Current market conditions support a disciplined and selective procurement strategy rather than aggressive long positioning across the board.

Main opportunities currently identified:

• Popcorn, due to improving fundamentals and reduced planting incentives among some producers

• Confectionery sunflower, especially striped and low-scuffing qualities, where availability remains tight

• Green peas, where prices remain near floor levels while future supply adjustments begin to emerge

• Black beans, where quality availability remains the key market driver

Main caution areas:

• Canary seed, due to heavy Canadian carry-over stocks

• Chickpeas, where global oversupply still limits immediate upside despite lower Argentine planting intentions

• Millet, where fragmented supply and logistical constraints continue complicating execution

Below is a detailed product-by-product analysis.

Popcorn

The Argentine 2025/26 corn campaign continues to show a favorable production outlook, with crop conditions remaining strong and total corn production projected at 61 MMT. Harvest progress has been slower due to prioritization of soybean harvesting across key agricultural regions.

For popcorn specifically, the market is showing improving fundamentals after a prolonged oversupply cycle.

Key market drivers:

• Good quality expectations for the current crop

• Reduced planted area from some non-specialized exporters

• Speculative holding behavior among mono-product companies expecting price recovery

• Gradual normalization of global demand

Current indicative prices for 40/42 stand between USD 520–530/t FOB Buenos Aires.

Commercial Takeaways

• Market appears to be transitioning from oversupply toward gradual tightening

• Downside risk looks increasingly limited at current levels

• Market recovery may be slower than expected, but structural pressure is easing

Recommended Actions

• Continue building partial coverage selectively

• Maintain layered purchasing strategy

• Prioritize reliable suppliers with execution capacity over speculative positioning

Sunflower (Confectionery & Oilseed)

The sunflower complex remains heavily supported by global crushing demand and biofuel economics. The relationship between crude oil prices and biodiesel demand continues to sustain industrial demand, particularly in Europe.

However, the latest USDA WASDE projections introduce an important medium-term shift.

For 2026/27:

• Global sunflower production is projected to increase 13% to 61.8 MMT

• Higher output expected from Russia, Ukraine, Argentina, Turkey, U.S., and EU

• Global ending stocks projected to increase 32%

• Global crush expected to increase 12%

• Sunflower oil exports projected to rise 16%

Despite this bearish-looking supply framework, the market remains far from harvest realization, and weather risk across the Northern Hemisphere remains highly relevant.

In confectionery sunflower:

• Availability remains extremely tight

• Producers continue retaining stock speculatively

• Export offers above USD 1,000/t FOB remain available for low-scuffing 22/24 material

• The 16–20/64 segment has become increasingly attractive as prices converge with striped material

In striped sunflower:

• Availability is really tight. Stocks are depleting rapidly without alternatives (besides small confection) until october, when the new northern hemisphere crop is harvested.

• Prices moved up 50/70 USD within the last month.

Commercial Takeaways

• Short-term fundamentals remain firm.

• Confectionery sunflower remains fundamentally tighter than oilseed sunflower

Recommended Actions

• Continue building positions in 16–20/64 material

• Secure low-scuffing volumes for June shipment

• Maintain cautious exposure beyond Northern Hemisphere crop development

• For black sunflower, seek buying opportunities below USD 700/t FOB

• Continue developing forward commercial agreements for next campaign striped sunflower

Green Peas

The pea market remains under pressure due to weak producer selling interest and burdensome inventories.

Current price levels do not cover total production costs for many farmers, generating strong retention behavior outside major exporters.

However, medium-term signals are beginning to improve:

• Canada projects a 12% reduction in planted area for 2026/27

• Production could decline approximately 25% under normalized yields

• Ending stocks would begin to decrease gradually

• International reference prices could recover toward USD 310/t average (farmers price)

Commercial Takeaways

• Market still weak in the short term

• Structural rebalancing may begin during the next cycle

• Competitive pressure remains intense among exporters

Recommended Actions

• Maintain disciplined pricing strategy

• Avoid aggressive long positioning without confirmed demand

• Prioritize flexibility and tactical opportunities

• Monitor Canadian planting evolution closely

Canary Seed

The canary seed market continues to face structurally bearish fundamentals driven by excessive Canadian inventories.

Key projections:

• Final stocks in Canada expected to rise from 84k MT to 170k MT in 2026

• Stocks could further increase toward 190k MT in 2026/27

• Stock/use ratio projected near 128%

• FOB plant prices projected to fall from USD 685/t to USD 450/t

Although Canada expects a 6% reduction in planted area, carry-over stocks remain sufficiently large to maintain pressure on international pricing.

Commercial Takeaways

• Oversupplied market with limited upside potential

• Canada remains dominant and highly competitive

• Spot trading environment continues to be the preferred strategy

Recommended Actions

• Continue working primarily spot business

• Prioritize Canadian origin for execution efficiency

• Maintain opportunistic supplier development in Ukraine

• Avoid speculative inventory accumulation

Millet

The millet market continues showing fragmented regional dynamics.

Market conditions:

• Limited Argentine availability for EU-approved material

• Ukraine continues acting as alternative origin, with low availability and quality

• Operational constraints remain significant

• Most business still requires full prepayment

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Commercial Takeaways

• Market remains operationally complex rather than fundamentally bullish

• Availability for specialized requirements remains constrained

• Logistics and execution capacity are critical variables

Recommended Actions

• Extend procurement planning horizon

• Avoid short coverage windows

• Prioritize execution reliability over marginal price differences

Black Beans

The black bean market remains relatively firm, although availability from previous crop stocks has increased.

The primary issue continues to be quality deterioration:

• Higher percentages of damaged product

• Increasing gap between total availability and export-grade quality

Commercial Takeaways

• Quality availability remains the key market risk

• Market continues rewarding certified and reliable product

• Safety stock strategy remains justified

Recommended Actions

• Continue securing quality-certified lots early

• Maintain conservative inventory coverage

• Avoid opportunistic purchases without proper specifications

Chickpeas

The chickpea market remains globally well supplied, supported by strong Canadian production and elevated stocks.

Demand remains active from:

• United States

• Turkey

• Pakistan

However, high inventories continue limiting upside potential.

In Argentina:

• Córdoba planted area projected down 9% YoY

• Surface remains 39% below historical average

• Santiago del Estero remains more stable due to improved moisture conditions

Current concern among producers remains profitability and export uncertainty.

Commercial Takeaways

• Global oversupply still caps short-term price recovery

• Argentine planting reductions could become supportive later

• Market remains highly competitive

Recommended Actions

• Maintain light-to-moderate coverage

• Avoid aggressive forward exposure

• Monitor planting evolution and Canadian stock movement closely

Final Thoughts

Agricultural markets are entering a phase where selectivity becomes more important than directional optimism.

Several products continue facing high inventories and aggressive competition, but important structural adjustments are beginning to emerge:

• Reduced planted area

• Farmer retention

• Quality constraints

• Tight confectionery segments

• Biofuel-driven industrial demand

The next major market driver will likely be Northern Hemisphere weather evolution and the confirmation—or revision—of the first USDA 2026/27 projections.

Strategic View

This is not a market environment for passive purchasing or speculative accumulation across all commodities.

It is a market that requires:

• Selective positioning

• Flexible coverage management

• Strong supplier execution

• Constant monitoring of origin competitiveness

Price Outlook Matrix – May 2026

Product	Outlook	Rationale	Recommended Action
Popcorn	🟢 BUY	Improving fundamentals + reduced planted area + gradual recovery	Build partial coverage
Sunflower (Confectionery)	🟢 BUY	Tight availability + speculative farmer holding + biofuel support	Secure strategic positions
Black Beans	🟢 BUY	Quality constraints + stable demand	Secure certified quality lots
Green Peas	🟡 HOLD	Weak demand but improving future balance sheet	Tactical positioning only
Chickpeas	🟡 HOLD	High global stocks despite lower planting intentions	Monitor closely
Millet	🟡 HOLD	Operational constraints + fragmented supply	Plan ahead
Canary Seed	🔴 WAIT	Excessive Canadian stocks + bearish fundamentals	Spot business only

How to Read This

• 🟢 BUY → Favorable entry point / upside risk dominates

• 🟡 HOLD → Tactical positioning / wait for clearer confirmation

• 🔴 WAIT → Oversupplied market / limited immediate opportunity