Specialty Crops Market Outlook – August 2026

Executive Summary

Agricultural markets are entering the second half of the year with an increasingly complex

combination of geopolitical, logistical and weather-related risks.

From a geopolitical and logistics perspective, the overall situation remains broadly unchanged.

Crude oil prices and international freight rates continue to trade at elevated levels, and our base

case is that this environment will persist at least through the end of the year. Buyers should

therefore avoid building purchasing strategies around the expectation of a meaningful short-

term normalization in freight costs.

Weather is now becoming the most relevant variable on the supply side. Across the Northern

Hemisphere, several key producing regions have been exposed to persistent heat waves.

France, Bulgaria and Russia are showing significant heat stress, while Ukraine faces similar

weather conditions combined with the additional uncertainty created by the war and intermittent

disruptions to export logistics. It remains too early to quantify final yield losses, but some impact

on production and quality should increasingly be incorporated into purchasing decisions.

Attention will progressively shift toward South America. Argentina will soon enter the planting

window for its new corn, soybean and sunflower crops. Current conditions are characterized by

above-average rainfall, while the prospect of a severe El Niño introduces the opposite risk from

the Northern Hemisphere: excessive moisture and potential flooding after planting. At this stage,

acreage and production projections should therefore be treated as scenarios rather than

secured supply.

Against this backdrop, we continue to favor a relatively defensive procurement strategy: secure

coverage where physical availability is tight or replacement costs are rising, while remaining

more tactical in commodities where projected global supply provides buyers with greater

optionality.

Popcorn

Market Situation

The popcorn market has clearly moved away from the historical lows seen earlier in the year.

Argentine FOB values have increased by approximately USD 50/MT over the last 45 days,

supported by a combination of delayed harvesting, lower domestic availability and reduced

production from other relevant origins, particularly Brazil and Turkey.

Argentine export activity has nevertheless remained strong. July represented the highest export

month of 2026 so far, reaching approximately 19.3 thousand MT, while current Argentine FOB values are trading around USD 540–560/MT, after remaining mostly within the USD 480–490/MT range during the first half of the year.

Persistent rains in Córdoba delayed harvesting and processing, pushing part of the originally scheduled August shipments into September.

Outlook

We maintain our bullish view. The market appears to have established a floor and is now

repricing toward a more sustainable level as buyers compete for a smaller immediately available

crop.

Our working expectation remains that Argentine popcorn could move toward approximately

USD 600/MT FOB by year-end, although the pace of appreciation should be gradual rather

than explosive.

Commercial Takeaway

Buyers with requirements through Q4 should progressively extend coverage rather than wait for

a significant correction. Current fundamentals do not support a return to the lows observed

earlier in the year.

• Rating: BUY

Sunflower

Market Situation

Sunflower remains one of the most complex markets in our current outlook.

The immediate physical market continues to strengthen. Argentine spot seed values are trading

at a significant premium to forward positions, while sunflower oil remains historically firm. The

market is therefore clearly paying for immediate availability rather than simply future

production.

At the same time, Argentina is coming from an exceptionally large crop and expanding crushing

activity. Industrial demand has increased materially, tightening the competition for available

seed despite the large headline production figures.

The international picture adds another layer of complexity. USDA currently projects a substantial

recovery in global sunflower production for 2026/27, particularly from Russia, Ukraine and the

European Union. Under normal circumstances, this would create a bearish outlook for the new

crop.

However, we believe these projections deserve considerable caution. Russia, Ukraine and parts

of Eastern Europe are currently experiencing significant heat stress, while Ukrainian export

logistics remain vulnerable to military disruptions. A large Ukrainian crop on paper does not

necessarily translate into an equivalent volume readily available to international buyers.

Confectionery & Birdfood Sunflower

The physical market remains particularly tight in striped sunflower, where availability is

extremely limited. This shortage continues to strengthen producers’ negotiating position and has

pushed striped sunflower values closer to those of oilseed sunflower.

Black sunflower has also progressively moved higher, with a clear premium developing for

immediate availability.

Confectionery sunflower remains relatively better supplied than striped material but has not fully followed the price appreciation already seen in black/oil sunflower. We continue to see this as a potential catch-up market, particularly if Northern Hemisphere production disappoints.

Outlook

The key distinction is between spot and forward markets.

Short-term physical sunflower remains structurally firm because of limited immediate availability, strong crushing demand, weather uncertainty and Black Sea logistics.

Further into 2027, however, the outlook becomes more balanced. If the projected recovery in

Russia, Ukraine, the EU and Argentina materializes, global supply should increase substantially

and eventually put pressure on prices.

For the next several months, we therefore remain constructive on physical sunflower,

particularly specialty and birdfood qualities.

Commercial Takeaways

Buyers should avoid remaining excessively short on striped, black and confectionery sunflower.

Coverage should be secured progressively, particularly for Q4 requirements.

For longer-dated positions, greater selectivity is warranted because the expected increase in

global production could eventually create better buying opportunities.

• Striped Sunflower: STRONG BUY

• Black Sunflower: BUY

• Confectionery Sunflower: BUY

• New Crop / Long-Dated Sunflower: HOLD

Green Peas

Market Situation

The green pea market remains relatively stable, although underlying fundamentals are

becoming more constructive.

In Argentina, producers remain reluctant sellers because current market values provide

insufficient returns, with selling expectations generally above USD 450/MT FOB Buenos Aires.

Internationally, Canadian fundamentals remain more comfortable. The latest projection

increased expected 2026/27 production to approximately 3.15 MMT following improved yield

expectations. However, planted area remains approximately 14% below the previous season,

while U.S. dry pea acreage is also expected to decline.

This creates an interesting balance: current inventories provide adequate supply, but lower

acreage and persistent international demand reduce the probability of a major downward price

adjustment.

Outlook

We expect green peas to remain broadly stable to moderately firm. Northern Hemisphere

weather during the final stages of crop development remains the principal short-term variable.

Commercial Takeaway

There is currently no need to aggressively chase the market, but buyers should maintain normal

coverage rather than wait for significantly lower prices.

• Rating: HOLD / BUY ON WEAKNESS

Millet

Market Situation

Millet remains characterized more by availability constraints than by aggressive price

appreciation.

Argentine yellow millet indications are generally in the USD 500–550/MT FOB Buenos Aires

range, although selected positions have recently been secured below these levels.

EU-compliant material is particularly difficult to source from Argentina, increasing dependence

on alternative origins such as Ukraine. This creates an additional layer of logistical and

geopolitical risk.

Colored millet remains significantly tighter. Argentine availability of white, red and especially

black millet is limited, with suppliers maintaining strong commercial conditions.

Outlook

We expect conventional yellow millet to remain broadly stable, while specialty colored millet

should retain a significant availability premium.

The evolution of Northern Hemisphere crops following the recent heat waves will be particularly

important. Any meaningful deterioration in yields could quickly tighten a market that already has

limited alternative supply for specific qualities.

Commercial Takeaway

Maintain normal coverage on yellow millet but secure specialty requirements early. Buyers

requiring red, black or EU-compliant millet should prioritize availability over attempts to

optimize the last dollars of price.

• Yellow Millet: HOLD

• Colored Millet: BUY

Black Beans

Market Situation

Black bean prices increased materially during the previous month and have subsequently

remained firm.

Brazilian demand continues to provide an important floor to the market, particularly because

Brazilian buyers are offering relatively short payment terms. Argentine FOB indications currently

range around USD 820–880/MT, depending on origin, quality and commercial conditions.

Export activity has also accelerated considerably. July represented the strongest month of the

recent period, with Venezuela accounting for more than half of Argentine black bean exports

during the month, while Brazil remained an important buyer.

Outlook

The combination of active regional demand and limited seller flexibility suggests that the market

should remain firm in the near term.

However, unlike sunflower or popcorn, current fundamentals do not yet justify aggressively

chasing prices after the recent appreciation.

Commercial Takeaway

Maintain adequate coverage and use temporary market weakness to extend positions. Buyers

should not remain materially short, but aggressive long positioning is not currently warranted.

• Rating: HOLD / BUY ON WEAKNESS

Chickpeas

Market Situation

Chickpeas present a fundamentally different picture.

Canadian projections for 2026/27 have improved materially. Although planted area has been

revised down, significantly higher expected yields have lifted projected production to

approximately 420 thousand MT, while total supply is estimated around 700 thousand MT.

Most importantly, projected carry-out stocks have increased substantially, resulting in an

exceptionally comfortable stock-to-use ratio.

Argentina presents a more mixed picture. Planted area in Córdoba remains well below historical

levels, although crop development in Santiago del Estero has so far been favorable. Current

Argentine conventional Grade 1 indications range approximately from USD 630/MT to USD

790/MT FOB, depending primarily on calibre.

Outlook

Global supply fundamentals currently limit the upside potential for chickpea prices. Even if

Argentina produces a smaller crop than historical averages, abundant North American stocks

should provide international buyers with alternatives.

Weather or quality problems could temporarily create premiums for specific calibres, but the

broader balance does not currently justify aggressive forward coverage.

Commercial Takeaway

Buyers should remain patient and selective. Cover immediate requirements but avoid building

unnecessarily large long positions unless specific quality or calibre availability becomes

constrained.

• Rating: WAIT / HOLD

Strategic View

The most important distinction in the current market is between commodities facing physical

availability risk and those where projected global stocks continue to provide buyers with

protection.

Our strongest purchasing conviction remains in striped sunflower and specialty sunflower,

followed by popcorn and colored millet. These markets combine limited immediate supply with

either rising replacement costs or identifiable production risks.

Green peas and black beans require more balanced positioning: neither market currently offers

a compelling reason to remain materially short, but neither warrants aggressive long exposure.

Chickpeas remain the clearest market where buyers can afford to maintain patience.

The principal risk to this outlook is weather. Northern Hemisphere production estimates still

assume relatively normal final yields despite the recent heat stress. At the same time, South

American projections increasingly depend on the development of El Niño and the ability of

Argentine crops to manage excessive moisture.

This combination argues for progressive coverage rather than binary purchasing

decisions: secure scarce physical commodities early, maintain flexibility where supply is

comfortable, and avoid assuming that projected production automatically translates into

exportable availability.

Price Outlook Matrix – August 2026

Product	Current Market	3–6 Month Bias	Supply Risk	Recommended Action
Striped Sunflower	Very tight	↑ Bullish	Very High	🟢STRONG BUY
Black Sunflower	Firm / rising	↑ Bullish	High	🟢BUY
Confectionery Sunflower	Firm	↑ Bullish	High	🟢BUY
Popcorn	Rising	↑ Bullish	Medium-High	🟢BUY
Colored Millet	Tight availability	↑ Firm	High	🟢BUY
Yellow Millet	Stable	→ / ↑ Stable-Firm	Medium	🟡HOLD
Green Peas	Stable	→ / ↑ Stable-Firm	Medium	🟡HOLD / BUY ON WEAKNESS
Black Beans	Firm	→ / ↑ Firm	Medium	🟡HOLD / BUY ON WEAKNESS
Chickpeas	Adequately supplied	→ / ↓ Neutral-Soft	Low-Medium	🔴WAIT / HOLD

How to Read This

• 🟢 STRONG BUY → Strong conviction. Market fundamentals point to sustained upside; building long positions is recommended.

• 🟢 BUY → Favorable entry point. Upside potential outweighs downside risk.

• 🟡 HOLD → Neutral outlook. Maintain tactical coverage and monitor market developments.

• 🔴 WAIT → Oversupplied market or limited upside. Delay purchases unless immediate coverage is required.

Key message for buyers: current headline production estimates should not be confused with

immediately available export supply. Weather stress, Black Sea logistics and elevated freight

costs continue to increase the value of securing reliable physical supply when availability is

already constrained.