Specialty Crops Market Outlook – September 2026

Global Market Overview

September is showing a more fragmented agricultural market. Rather than a common directional trend, price behavior is increasingly being determined by physical availability, origin-specific logistics and the timing of the Northern Hemisphere harvest.

The Black Sea remains the main source of uncertainty. The war continues to affect export reliability from Ukraine through disruptions to port operations, limited container availability and uncertainty around loading schedules. This is particularly relevant in smaller specialty crops, where alternative origins are limited and logistical disruptions can rapidly translate into higher prices elsewhere. 

At the same time, the Northern Hemisphere harvest is beginning to introduce additional supply into several markets. Sunflower is the clearest example: projected global production is materially higher and should progressively reduce the tightness seen during 2024–2026. However, the transition will not be immediate, as Black Sea logistics remain constrained and spot availability continues to command premiums.  

In South America, attention is shifting toward the 2026/27 planting season. Argentina is expanding sunflower acreage, while the expected El Niño introduces increasing uncertainty for crops exposed to excessive rainfall. For buyers, the key distinction over the coming months will therefore remain between commodities where new-crop supply is beginning to relieve the market and those where physical availability remains structurally constrained.

Popcorn

The bullish trend identified during the previous months has strengthened.

Argentine FOB values have increased approximately USD 50/MT over the last 45 days, supported by delayed harvesting, reduced immediate domestic availability and lower production from competing origins, particularly Brazil and Turkey. Current offers for October-November shipment are already around USD 570–590/MT FOB, compared with an average export value of approximately USD 500/MT during August-September.  

The broader corn balance has also become more supportive. The September WASDE reduced projected U.S. production and ending stocks while increasing the average farm price, leaving the international market with a smaller supply cushion. 

We therefore maintain our expectation that Argentine popcorn could approach USD 610/630/MT FOB toward year-end. We do not expect a sudden price spike, but rather a continued gradual appreciation.

Buying strategy: Buyers with Q4 requirements should progressively extend coverage. Current fundamentals provide little support for waiting for a meaningful correction.

• Rating: STRONG BUY

Sunflower

Sunflower is moving from the tight 2024–2026 cycle toward a potentially better supplied global market.

USDA currently projects 62.62 MMT of global production for 2026/27, +13.8% YoY, driven primarily by the recovery of Russia, Ukraine and the EU. Combined production from these three origins is expected to increase from 36.85 MMT to 43.20 MMT.  

This additional supply is already being reflected in the forward market. Sunflower oil remains firm in spot positions at approximately USD 1,520–1,540 CIF Rotterdam, while Q4 values discount a correction toward USD 1,440. Argentine seed prices have also moved below their May peaks. 

Argentina is simultaneously moving toward another large crop. Planting intentions are estimated at 3.0 million hectares (+5.3%), with current production estimates ranging broadly between 6.6 and 8.0 MMT. f

However, specialty sunflower requires a different reading.

Striped Sunflower

Availability remains extremely limited. The arrival of Black Sea production could eventually provide relief, but this will depend heavily on actual export availability and freight economics. Prices are way above 800/MT FOB

For buyers requiring striped sunflower during the coming months, physical availability remains more important than the potentially bearish global oilseed balance.

• Rating: STRONG BUY

Black Sunflower

Black sunflower remains supported by sunflower oil values, with current Argentine offers around USD 780–790/MT FOB. We expect some adjustment as Northern Hemisphere supply enters the market, making aggressive forward coverage less attractive at current levels.

• Rating: HOLD

Confectionery Sunflower

Where positions are already available, the current market provides an attractive selling window. Increasing Northern Hemisphere supply argues against accumulating speculative inventory.

• Rating: SELL / COVER AGAINST SALES

Millet & Moha

Millet has become materially tighter.

Uncertainty surrounding Ukrainian exports is redirecting demand toward Argentina. War-related logistical disruptions, limited availability of empty containers and rapidly changing supplier quotations are making Ukrainian execution increasingly difficult. 

Argentina is consequently experiencing stronger demand while local producers are simultaneously reluctant sellers. Yellow millet is currently indicated around USD 540/560/MT FOB Buenos Aires. 

Moha could theoretically provide an alternative, but supply is also limited. Early indications suggest only approximately 300 MT of yellow moha and 100 MT of orange moha may become available from some suppliers during February-March, while unattractive producer economics are limiting planting intentions. 

Buying strategy: Secure requirements when suitable material becomes available. The principal risk is currently availability rather than price.

• Rating: STRONG BUY

Green Peas

The green pea market has become moderately more constructive.

Canadian production for 2026/27 is projected at 3.15 MMT, approximately 20% below the previous campaign. Large carry-in stocks soften the impact, leaving total supply only 5% lower at 4.21 MMT, but sustained exports are expected to reduce ending stocks from 1.04 MMT to approximately 860,000 MT. 

This effectively puts a floor under international prices after the sharp decline experienced during 2025/26.

Argentina is currently competitive against both Canada and Ukraine. Indicative Argentine green peas are around USD 465/MT FOB Buenos Aires, translating into approximately USD 480 CFR Manila and USD 553 CFR Dakar. Ukraine remains competitive, but carries substantially higher execution risk. 

Buying strategy: Current levels offer a reasonable opportunity to establish coverage before the market fully prices the smaller Canadian crop.

• Rating: BUY

Black Beans

Black bean prices remain firm following the increase observed during August.

Current Argentine indications are approximately USD 880–920/MT FOB Buenos Aires. Brazilian demand and short payment terms continue to support regional values. 

However, the medium-term picture is more balanced. Increasing Canadian production adds another relevant supplier to the international market and should limit upside potential, particularly in Mexico and Central America. 

Buying strategy: Maintain normal coverage but avoid chasing current prices. The market is firm rather than structurally scarce.

• Rating: HOLD

Mung Beans

Mung beans currently present more commercial risk than fundamental supply risk.

Argentine product is trading below USD 700/MT CFR, but the market is being disrupted by contract defaults, delayed payments and quality-related rejections. Some exporters are attempting to liquidate positions and containers already in transit, creating downward pressure on prices.  

This is therefore not necessarily a conventional buying opportunity created by abundant supply. Part of the price weakness reflects distressed positions.

Buying strategy: Remain selective. Attractive prices may emerge, but counterparty, quality and execution risk should be considered as important as headline price.

• Rating: HOLD / CAUTION

Chickpeas

The global chickpea balance remains comfortable.

Canada is not expected to face a shortage during 2026/27. Lower production is being offset by substantial carry-in stocks, resulting in higher total available supply and limiting the potential for a major international price increase. 

Argentina is currently particularly competitive. Conventional Grade 1 Sortex indications are approximately:

• 7 mm: USD 590–640/MT FOB

• 8 mm: USD 660–690/MT FOB

• 9 mm: USD 700–750/MT FOB

  
  

For 7 mm chickpeas delivered Aqaba, Argentina is currently around USD 740/MT CFR, compared with approximately USD 780 from Russia and USD 865 from Bulgaria. 

Buying strategy: This is primarily a trading opportunity rather than a market to accumulate speculatively. Argentina’s current competitiveness supports selling destination business and covering the corresponding origin position.

• Rating: SELL & BUY

September Buying View

Product	Market Direction	Supply Risk	Strategy
Popcorn	↑ Bullish	Medium-High	STRONG BUY
Striped Sunflower	↑ Tight	Very High	STRONG BUY
Black Sunflower	→ / ↓	Medium	HOLD
Confectionery Sunflower	↓ Increasing supply	Medium	SELL / COVER
Millet / Moha	↑ Bullish	High	STRONG BUY
Green Peas	→ / ↑	Medium	BUY
Black Beans	→ Firm	Medium	HOLD
Mung Beans	↓ Distressed	Medium	HOLD / CAUTION
Chickpeas	→ Well supplied	Low-Medium	SELL & BUY

Bottom Line

The September market is increasingly about selectivity rather than broad commodity inflation.

The clearest upside risk remains in popcorn, striped sunflower and millet, where limited physical availability provides genuine support to prices. Green peas have also become more constructive following the reduction in Canadian production.

By contrast, the broader sunflower complex is approaching an important turning point as Northern Hemisphere supply enters the market, while chickpeas remain adequately supplied globally.

For professional buyers, the implication is straightforward: secure scarce products, remain disciplined in well-supplied markets, and distinguish physical availability from headline production figures.