Popcorn: Prices at the Bottom = A Buying Opportunity

This has been a tough year for popcorn, and the numbers speak for themselves. With losses of USD 80–100/ton for Argentine producers, future planting intentions are shrinking. For planting to recover, prices will need to rebound enough to make the crop attractive again.

Over the past year, the popcorn market has been on a downward price curve. In June last year, average FOB prices from Argentina were around USD 650/ton, but progressively slipped to USD 500–520/ton. Sometimes certain exporters even offered 480/ton.

Why did this happen?

• Argentina’s late harvest brought supply to market in July.

• At the same time, Brazil and Turkey harvested record crops, creating an oversupply in a very short window.

Since then, stocks have been slowly sold, influencing planting decisions in Brazil, Turkey, and Argentina.

Now the picture is starting to change:

• Lower planting intentions in Argentina.

• Return to normal volumes in Brazil and Turkey.

• Prices are already touching bottom levels.

Keep in mind: Argentine producers have a breakeven point above USD 550–600/ton FOB. This means most of this campaign has been sold at a loss.

For Argentina’s 25/26 season, planted area is expected to fall around 25%. Under normal conditions, prices should climb back into the USD 625–670/ton FOB range by April next year.

Key Conclusions

• Popcorn prices have found a floor.

• Market fundamentals suggest a progressive rebound.

• Next year’s average is expected around USD 650 FOB.

For these reasons, we see this as a great time to secure purchases at current low levels, with positions extending until Argentina’s new harvest in March.

Trade Outlook

Origin	Normal Trade (tons)	Trade 2024	Projected Trade 2025 (tons)	Variation
Argentina	215	225	205	-9%
USA	150	150	150	0%
Brazil	30	90	50	-45%
South Africa	50	50	50	0%
Turkey	30	80	40	-50%
Total	475	595	495	-17%

Should you have any questions or require deeper insights into the popcorn market, please do not hesitate to contact our sales team or email me directly at jorge.huck@springhausagro.com

We will be happy to assist.

See you next month, with further market updates.

Jorge Huck

Sales Manager